Favorite Betting Strategy: How to Place a Bet with the Best Odds

Updated on January 17, 2022 | By Abby Jackson

The strategy of betting on the favorite is considered by many to be safe. This is only partly true because it has its own pitfalls.

To use such a strategy, it is extremely important to choose a good bookmaker such as BetWinner. Indeed, to show a profit, you need to choose only the best odds for the victory of the favorite.

In this article, we will tell you how to choose events for betting on the favorite and how to get a profit with this strategy.

What is a Favorite Betting Strategy?

This is a betting strategy at low odds – up to 1.55. In theory, such quotes minimize risks. Therefore, the strategy of betting on the favorite is usually called safe.

It is difficult to be in the black in the long run with such a strategy, but it is possible. It should be noted that one loss covers three or four successful bets.

For success, follow the two main principles of this strategy:

Don’t bet on big odds. The maximum value of quotes for bets is not higher than 1.55.
Take the victory of the favorite if the odds for the outsider are at least twice as high. For example, if you bet 1.50 on one team to win, their opponent will have odds of 3.00 or higher.

Choosing a Match to Bet on the Favorite

The betting strategy against the favorite involves the selection of sporting events that are the least amenable to analysis. If you decide to bet on the favorites, look for the most predictable events where the probability of an underdog winning is minimal.

Therefore, you should not bet on the victory of the favorite in the following situations:

A strong team lacks tournament motivation. For example, in the last matches of the championship, if it secured victory in the competition in advance.
The match takes place in bad weather conditions, which eliminates the difference in class and technique.
The favorite is approaching the meeting with a series of several matches without a win.

According to statistics, most often the favorites win in handball, basketball, and American football. In football, their winning percentage is just over 50%.

Because of this, in handball, basketball, and other predictable sports, odds below 1.10 were sometimes given to winning the favorite. Therefore, players often choose to bet on their favorite in tennis or football. Since the quotes are often given at the level of 1.20 and above.

Favorite Betting Examples

The most illustrative example of such a bet is the match between the championship leader and a team from the bottom half.

For example, in German Bundesliga, Bayern will be the undisputed favorite in a match with the vast majority of teams. This team has been dominating the championship for a good ten years now and has won about 80% of matches. A high coefficient on it is rare.

In the Spanish championship, such teams will be Real and Barcelona, in France PSG. The English Premier League is a more competitive environment, so it is more difficult to bet on favorite matches. Although, Man City in matches with teams from the bottom of the table will do.

At the same time, using this strategy, you should forget about the fights between the leading teams of the championship, no matter how tempting the odds are. Such matches are very difficult to predict, which means they are not suitable for us.

How to Profitably Bet on the Favorite in Football

Determine the break-even point – the percentage of bets that must be won to break even at given average odds.

Break-even point formula:

T = 100/K, where K is the average coefficient.

For example, you bet with an average odd of 1.25. Then you need to pass at least 80% of the bets: 100/1.25.

Bet on your favorite in advance. Sometimes bookmakers give a line for a top match a couple of weeks before the meeting or even earlier. If you are sure that the favorite will put up the main team, make a bet.

The fact is that there will be a large number of bets on the team you have chosen. After all, people want to capitalize on its victory. Because of this, a load occurs – a decrease in the coefficient on the outcome due to a lot of bets.

For example, the odds of 1.48 were initially given for the victory of the favorite. Before the meeting, quotes for winnings fell to 1.40. What does it mean?

At odds of 1.48, you need a pass of 67.57% of the bets. With a quote of 1.40, the throughput must be at least 71.43%. At a distance of 10,000 bets, this is a huge difference. In the first case, 6757 wins are, and in the second – 7143.